AGFLOW SOYBEAN MARKET SIGNAL

Understand what the soybean market is paying you to do.

Every week, AgFlow starts with Chicago, evaluates the forward curve, tests the message against the physical soybean market, and translates the evidence into commercial decision guidance.‍

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Smiling middle-aged man with dark hair and light skin wearing a dark suit jacket, a striped shirt, and a patterned tie, shown in a black and white headshot.
BUILT BY

Leonardo Rocha

Leonardo Rocha is the founder of AgFlow Intelligence. His research focuses on soybean basis, futures spreads, export flows, crush demand, ownership, positioning and Brazil–U.S. competitiveness.

AgFlow was built around a simple idea: market participants do not need more information. They need a clearer framework for determining what the information means.
Meet Leo →
“Better information
leads to better decisions
for a stronger, more
efficient soybean industry.”
‍Leonardo Rocha
Founder, AgFlow Intelligence
HOW AGFLOW READS THE MARKET

One market. Multiple signals. One commercial interpretation.

Icon of three vertical bars increasing in height next to text that reads: 01 Futures & Spreads Chicago pricing and curve structure.
Icon of a delivery truck next to text reading '02 Physical Market' with a subheading 'Cash bids, basis, processors and export demand.'
Icon of a plant with two leaves inside a light blue circle, next to text reading '03 Fundamentals Crush, exports and supply-demand conditions'.
Purple icon of three people inside a lavender circle next to the text '04 Positioning Managed-money and commercial positioning' in bold and gray fonts on a white background.
Target icon in a green circle next to text reading '05 Decision Framework: Evidence translated into commercial context.'
LATEST FROM AGFLOW

Research for people who work in the soybean market.

DEEP DIVE
OCT 9, 2026

U.S.Soybeans Face a Market-Share Test — Not Just a Price Problem

Why China's shift toward Brazil raises a deeper question about American soybean competitiveness
Read the latest report →
DEEP DIVE
OCT 4, 2026

Does soybean seasonality actually justify holding grain after harvest?

I analyzed 25 years of Illinois soybean cash prices to examine what historically happens from harvest through the following summer.
Read the latest report →
DEEP DIVE
SEP 27, 2026

A record soybean crop does not necessarily mean a larger surplus.

USDA projects 4.535 billion bushels of U.S. production in 2026/27.
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Read the analysis →
DEEP DIVE
SEP 20, 2026
Port scene with a large cargo ship being loaded with soybean meal from a conveyor, a large pile of soybeans in the foreground, and a world map showing U.S. soybean meal export routes to Mexico, Colombia, and the Philippines.

U.S. soybean meal exports are having a record year.

Mexico is the largest source of growth, but this is not a single-country story.
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Read the analysis →
DEEP DIVE
SEP 13, 2026

AgFlow Crop Insurance and Soybean Marketing

A soybean producer can have crop insurance in place and still face a difficult marketing decision.
Read the latest report →
DEEP DIVE
SEP 6, 2026

U.S. soybean crush is moving to record levels

U.S. soybean crush is moving to record levels. But can the market absorb all the meal?
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Read the analysis →
DEEP DIVE
AUG 30, 2026
AgFlow Intelligence banner showing the message: China wants food security and Brazil is building the supply system to match it, highlighting soybeans, Brazil, corn ethanol, and trade. The image illustrates a world map with Brazil and China highlighted, connected by a dotted green line. Below are soybeans, a corn cob, and a laboratory flask labeled ethanol, with silos in the background. A note mentions U.S. risk as market share pressure, not disappearance of Chinese demand.

China Wants Food Security. Brazil Is Building the Supply System to Match It.

China's push for greater agricultural self-reliance does not mean the end of soybean imports.
Read the analysis →

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